Yesterday was Friday the 13th but it did not spook market participants at all. It was an uneventful day for the Indian markets as Nifty remained range bound due to lack of any triggers. Markets kept gyrating between red and green. Sentiments were slightly tempered earlier in the day after the PMEAC lowered FY14 GDP forecast from 6.4 percent to 5.3 percent. INR improved from Rs 65.246/USD last Friday to Rs 63.730/USD this Friday. Yesterday's higher than expected IIP and lower than expected CPI cheered street participants.
Consequently, Nifty gained 4.63 percent from last Friday. Among broader indices, BSE Realty (+2.72 percent) and BSE Power (+2.47 percent) were the best performers while BSE Consumer Durables (-1.54 percent) and BSE IT (-1.43 percent) performed the worst. The Rajan effect accompanied by improvement in global macro-economic factors have helped markets rally over the past few days. All eyes will now be on RBI's mid-quarter review on 20th September, 2013; and Rajan's first. Nifty and Sensex closed the day with gains/losses of 0.01 percent and 0.25 percent respectively.
Among Asian markets, Shanghai Composite (-0.86 percent) and Hang Seng (-0.17 percent) closed with losses. Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng have rallied 6.57 percent and 5.45 percent since the beginning of September, 2013 and hence a correction looked imminent. Nikkei kept swinging between losses and gains to finally close 0.12 percent higher. Markets will be keenly watching outcome of Federal Reserve's meeting next week for cues on stimulus tapering. The cautiousness was shared by European markets that opened in the red as well. FTSE was down 0.26 percent, CAC was down 0.17 percent while DAX was down 0.65 percent.
Nifty tried to establish a clear direction several times during Friday but failed to move past a trading range and finally concluded flat at 5850. It is stuck in a sideways range for past three sessions and now has an immediate resistance placed at 5880. Our preferred view for the index is that if it manages to respect the immediate support of 5800 and clear 5880 then it can rally very fast till the recent high of 5932 and beyond that 5970 to 6000 may be a possibility in case the momentum remains firm.
However such an up thrust should be used as an opportunity to exit from long positions and create shorts as there is a high possibility that the upside will not sustain and fade away to retest at least the level of 5800 to 5750 eventually. In an alternate scenario if Nifty breaches the support of 5800 then it may come down till 5750 which is the next important support.
If 5750 is respected then we may see another attempt to retest the range of 5850 to 5880, else a larger sell off may be in store.
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