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According to him, if the Nifty breaks 6000 levels, it can touch 5,850 level and perhaps fall further to 5,750 level, depending on the outcome of the state elections. He says, at the moment, the market is seeing only short-side aggression. "We are finding short side aggression to get rolled and that is the reason we are seeing some amount of lackluster rollovers in Bank Nifty," Radke told CNBC-TV18.
Below is the verbatim transcript of Yogesh Radke's interview on CNBC-TV18
Q: What is your call looking at the options data in terms of expiry tomorrow, do you think the Nifty will break this 6,000 to 6,100 band or will we have to wait for the December series for that?
A: Around 55 percent of the rollovers have already been done. On the rollovers' part, healthy rollovers have happened, but largely we have seen short side aggression - when the rollovers were happening and surely the next series that we are seeing shorts have been getting carried forward in an aggressive manner in the next series. So if you look at it, I expect at least tomorrow's expiry day, we may see some downward pressure on the market and also in the December series, we may have short side aggression, which is getting carried forward into the next series.
Q: What is your sense if there could be pressure in the December series, how low could the Nifty go?
A: If you look at Nifty levels, it has touched 6,000 levels twice in the last two-three weeks, that doesn't say one of the levels, which is very crucially looked at by most of the traders, if it breaks down below that, it will touch 5,850 levels and after that we may also see 5,750 level because the state election results will also be the key driver to the sentiments and if the Nifty breaks below 6,000 level then surely some amount of pressure would be seen in the counter.
Q: Last series we had almost record rollovers especially on the index. As of now the rollovers are looking quite muted especially on Bank Nifty only about 38 percent or so, what is that telling you and what is your opinion on Bank Nifty?
A: In most of the indices and even stocks, we are finding short side aggression to get rolled and that is the reason we are seeing some amount of lackluster rollovers in Bank Nifty. So if the long rulers start participating in the market we may see the rollovers picking up but at the junction the aggression is largely from the short side.
Q: Apart from the banking names where else are you witnessing rollovers on the short side?
A: Counters like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), State Bank of India (SBI) are also where the shorts and aggressions are quite high. If you look at the long side aggression, we saw some amount of long side pressure from the counter like Lupin where the stock is already into the FII restriction. So the long side aggression is quite evident in that counter. But otherwise across the board it is largely the aggression from the short side which is being witnessed in the market.
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