The Indian Rupee traded depreciated around 0.4 percent in yesterday's trading session. The currency depreciated in later part of the trade and erased all its gains on the back of dollar demand from state run banks. It is estimated that dollar demand was more likely from defense related purchases. Further, strength in the DX in later part of the trade exerted downside pressure on the currency.
However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented due to rising inflow of foreign funds into debt markets. Further, upbeat domestic market sentiments restricted downside movement in the currency. Additionally, decline in inflation data from the country last week increased expectations that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep key interest rates unchanged in its meeting on 28th Jan'14 cushioned sharp downside in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 61.94 and closed at 61.88 on Tuesday.
For the month of January 2014, FII inflows totaled at Rs.2701.60 crores (USD 438.98 million) as on 21st January 2014. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.2701.60 crores (USD 438.98 million) as on 21st January 2014.
Outlook
In today's trade, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a mixed note on the back of weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor. Further, rising inflow of foreign funds into the bond markets and estimates of RBI keeping the key rates unchanged in its policy meeting on 28th Jan'14 will support an upside in the currency. Additionally, suggestions made by the RBI monetary policy committee panel indicate a target for decline in inflation to be at 8 percent in one year and 6 percent in two years. Also, retail inflation to be considered as benchmark. While on the other hand, dollar demand from oil firms and defense related payments coupled with mixed market sentiments will act as a negative factor.
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