Patnaik expects a pause in RBI's monetary policy on January 28 and does not see any comfort from the central bank in terms of rate actions right now. He recommends staying away from financials right now not in the short run but from a portfolio perspective.
Below is the interview of Tirthankar Patnaik, EVP - Institutional Sales at Religare Capital Markets on CNBC-TV18.
Anuj: What do you think has happened today? Is it just a bit of profit booking, global risk-off or do you think the market was getting a bit ahead of itself and a bit of reality check has come in today?
A: Through a top down perspective, Chinese data was disappointing, 7.7 percent and gross domestic product (GDP) level was slightly lower than expectations and that led to the level of markets basically taking from correction, some amount of risk-off which has now panned into the Asian markets as well. From a fundamental perspective, that is where we are.
Ekta: What is happening with the entire Bank Nifty now, how would you approach the Bank Nifty especially ahead of the RBI policy?
A: A lot of expectations had built in on the dovish side after better-than-expected inflation prints, market participants on the extreme side even started factoring in that we might see a cut given that growth remains very weak and inflation prints are now at least on the right trajectory, downward trajectory. But after the Urjit Patel Committee report and after the governor's latest statements, market sentiments have turned out again to the negative side. We will expect a pause this time given that inflation trajectory is negative but we will not expect any comfort from the central bank in terms of rate actions right now.
We continue to see Reserve Bank of India (RBI) putting about 8 on the repo, 9 on the marginal standing facility (MSF) as the peak rates and given that there is limited headroom, a pause would probably make sense at this point. So to approach the Bank Nifty, we would stay away from financials right now not in the short run but from a portfolio perspective this is not the time to be in financials.
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