Accordint to Angel commodities, Cotton futures may trade on a negative to mixed note. Selling on higher levels may be negative for the prices.
Kapas
Cotton complex traded on a negative on Friday on limited trading. MCX Cotton Dec Futures settled 0.32% lower and NCDEX Kapas April'15 settled 0.38% lower on Friday. Domestic spot markets were stable as millers were buying as per the requirements. The arrival pace in India has picked up as procurement by the government agencies has increased in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat.
In global markets, cotton prices have been moving in downward track since past few months. Weaker consumption in local and declining exports from major producing nations apart from China's new policy impacts have been adding concerns among buyers.
Cotton prices in China India and Pakistan have fallen by 25 to 30 per cent and on the international market the commodity has lost nearly 75 per cent from last year. According to Chinese Government survey, the cotton production in China is down 2.2% and fell by 6.16 mt as cotton area shrank nearly 3%.
Domestic Production and Consumption
According to Cotton Association of India (CAI) cotton output in the country would stand around 402 lakh bales in season 2014-15, slightly lower than the production of previous season when it was 407.25 lakh bales. The arrival of cotton till Dec 21 is at 10.50 million bales according to CCI data which is almost at the same level as last year.
Two successive years of bumper harvest have contributed to the fall in the domestic prices below MSP. Cotton procurement by the CCI has touched 2.5 millions highest in last six years. India's cotton exports have also dropped by 40 per cent year on year with prices declining upto 30 per cent for the same time period as demand from China has slowed down in 2014-15.
Global Cotton Updates (WASDE Report)
Latest report has pegged global output down from its previous month's estimates. Production is reduced for the US and Greece, with smaller revisions in several other countries. World ending stocks are projected at just over 108 million bales. Global consumption is reduced nearly 1.3 million bales, reflecting lower forecasts for China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, and Turkey.
US production reduced to 474,000 bales whereas Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are now at 4.6 million bales, or one-third of total disappearance.
Outlook
Cotton futures may trade on a negative to mixed note. Selling on higher levels may be negative for the prices.
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