Gold: This morning at 8:50 AM IST, spot gold is seen trading at USD 1427.50, marginally higher from the previous close. We see gold trading higher while the rest of the asset classes like Asian equities, silver, industrial metals and the euro were all in red. As the day progresses, we believe the weakness in gold should mount and fresh selling may emerge. The ETF holdings at the SPDR gold trust have declined to 1104.71 percent, down 4.30 percent from last Tuesday. Therefore, we believe the gains noticed over the last five sessions were more of speculative interest or due to the short covering from the huge sell off. The Italian parliament re-elected the current President Giorgio Napolitano yesterday and briefly boosted market sentiments across the globe. This morning however, the Asian equities have pared their gains on the back of slowing Chinese manufacturing activity that stood at 50.50, heightening the concerns of slowing economic growth in China. Going ahead, we expect the PMI numbers of both services and manufacturing from the euro-zone and Germany to remain weak. The house prices and new home sales from the US are likely to remains higher and should pull gold down. The Richmond Fed manufacturing Index is also expected to grow at a slower pace, weighing down on gold. The US treasury department auctioned USD 35 billion 2-year notes. Therefore, we recommend selling at higher levels. Those who are holding short positions as suggested in our previous report should add more selling in today's trading session. At the MCX, gold futures might restrict their fall due to weakness in the rupee. However, we recommend selling from the higher levels.
Silver: This morning, at 9:12 AM IST, spot silver was seen trading 16 cents lower from the previous close. We expect silver should trade down in today's trading session. The slowing Chinese manufacturing numbers are causing the entire industrial sector to trade lower so, the impact was seen on silver prices too. As explained in the gold report, silver should also trade down due to weak data from the euro-zone and Germany. However, during the US session, huge volatility might be seen in silver prices, owing to mixed economic releases from the US. Therefore, we recommend selling silver for the day. We also suggest a gold-silver ratio strategy by selling silver and buying gold for the day as we suggested in our previous report on the time spread between the May and July contract at the MCX. We still continue to hold the same view. In our last day's report we suggested to trade during the spread at a difference of 740-750. The market closed at 728 so, we continue to hold the same view for the day.
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