Has inflation cooled enough to lower rates? Experts debate

India Inc has been widely espousing and expecting an early rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Uday Kotak, Executve VC and MD,  Kotak Mahindra Bank says: "I would still say that 70 percent probability in February; 30 percent probability in December."

But a CNBC-TV18 poll shows that economists are still not sure that the battle against inflation has been won. None of the economists polled expect a rate cut in the December 2 policy. Only 10 percent saw a cut as early as in February; 50 percent saw the first cut in April; 20 percent in the second half of 2015 and 20 percent saw the first cut in January 2016 that is 13 months from now.

This is partly because most expect inflation to dip in October-November but rise again in the January-March quarter.

The poll indicated that economists see inflation dipping from 6.5 percent in September to 5.7 percent in October; but rising to 6.6 percent in January and 6.8 percent in March 2015.

The governor's stated goal is to bring inflation to 6 percent by January 2016. Our poll indicated that economists see inflation decline to 6.2 percent at best by January 2016; only 20 percent saw inflation below 6 percent in January 2016. Hence there are no huge rate cut expectations: 70 percent of those polled see a maximum of 50 basis cut by January 2016. 10 percent saw only a 25 basis point cut by next January and only 20 percent saw a 75 bps cut in repo rates by January 2016.

Now for a more threadbare analysis of whether and when the Reserve Bank can cut interest rates.

One of the most immediate factors that has enthused the market into expecting a rate cut is the over 20 percent fall in crude oil prices in the last 4-5 months. But Sonal Varma, economist at Nomura India, thinks everyone is overplaying the role of commodity price fall on CPI considering it is largely a non-tradable basket because it has food and services in it. Hence the impact is rather low.

"Our estimates are that every USD 10 fall in oil leads to may be about 20 bps moderation in CPI inflation," she adds.

Varma adds that rural wages and nominal rural wages per annum in the last 2-3 years has fallen to single digits, somewhere near 5-10 from 15-20 percent per annum and that is what is driving down the cost of production for these non-tradables and that is the reason why CPI inflation is coming down, not so much commodity prices.

Sajjid Chinoy, JP Morgan economist and member of the Urjit Patel Committee on monetary policy framework too is not convinced that the recent cooling off in inflation is permanent. He says there is a seasonal drop off at vegetable prices but one cannot with certainty that we have done everything on the ground to ensure that there is no spike in vegetable prices three or six months from now.

According to Chinoy, what we are seeing are tactical disinflationary forces for food. But he is unsure that one can say structurally next year food inflation will gap down from a historical average of 9 percent to 5-6 percent. "It is too early to conclude that and that is why the Central Bank will have to be cautious," he adds.

Also, Dr C Rangarajan, former Reserve Bank governor and India's original inflation warrior says the impact of deficient monsoon this year has not been as severe as it was originally thought of and that is one of the reasons why some of the prices even vegetable prices have not been rising as fast as one had expected.

Rangarajan sees inflation staying at a much lower level. He says: "There is no insurance against rise in vegetable prices six months from now but my own feeling is given the fact that MSP is not being raised sharply, given the fact that more liberal attitude towards the release of food stocks is being contemplated, I would expect the food inflation to come down, stay at a much lower level."

Below is the verbatim transcript of Dr Rangarajan, Sajjid Chinoy and Sonal Varma's interview with Latha Venkatesh on CNBC-TV18.

Latha: Obviously the most immediate factor that has enthused markets into expecting a rate cut has been this seminal fall in crude prices. It is into bear market terrain - over 20 percent fall in the last four-five months. What is the impact of a 10 percent fall in crude prices on the consumer price index (CPI) itself?

Varma: I think we are overplaying the role of commodity price fall on CPI inflation. Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation of course largely being a commodity basket gets impacted but the impact on CPI inflation, which is largely a non-tradable basket because it has food where we are largely self-sufficient and services, the impact is quite low. Our estimates are that every USD 10 fall in oil leads to may be about 20 bps moderation in CPI inflation.

The 10 percent rate of fuel and light in CPI has liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity where prices are still subsidised. So, it is not crude, the more important variable which we have been tracking is rural wages and nominal rural wages on our rough estimates have fallen to single digits now somewhere in 5-10 percent range from 15-20 percent per annum and that is what is driving down the cost of production for these non-tradables and I think that is primarily the reason why CPI inflation is coming down, not so much commodity prices.

Latha: We have definitely seen the CPI numbers surprising on the downside. I remember in August we were all talking about 7.8 percent and finally we got closer to 7.3 percent. Even for the month of September, our guesses were more towards 7 percent and we got 6.46 percent. So clearly, as Sonal Varma pointed out, rural wages and food inflation have surprised on the downside, how are you assessing food inflation going forward? Do you think we have got out of that double digit inflation for a longish bit?

Chinoy: I think there are several factors at play. One is you have got a seasonal drop off at vegetable prices but you cannot with a degree of certainty say that we have done everything on the ground to ensure that there is no spike in vegetable prices three months from now or six months from now.

The second to their credit, the government has been far more pro-active in releasing stocks of rice and wheat. Therefore what you are seeing is cereals inflation has come off quite sharply. So the combination of cereals inflation moderating, vegetable prices coming down seasonally, global food prices which have some impact on oil seeds, pulses, sugar been benign, all of these factors have come together.

But let me conclude by saying, we have had 9 percent food inflation for the last 10 years and one cannot, with a degree of certainty, say that structural food inflation has gone away completely. What we are seeing are tactical disinflationary forces for food but I am not sure that we can say structurally next year food inflation will gap down from a historical average of 9 percent to 5-6 percent. It is too early to conclude that and that is why the Central Bank will have to be cautious.

Latha: What is your sense? You saw four-five years of inactivity in terms of offloading of FCI food and intervention in the food market. Now do you think things are picking up much better and as Sajjid Chinoy said, there is this perfect storm global food prices also falling and domestic MSP and rural wages also falling?

Rangarajan: I think one of these structural factors which has been contributing to the upward pressure on food prices has been the MSP except for the last two years. If you look at the policy decisions earlier, you have seen fairly sharp increases in MSP. That has contributed to the upward pressure in cereal prices. Therefore, that is coming down now and therefore that is in some way a structural change. There are other structural changes, which have been emphasized but this also should be treated as the structural change that we are currently witnessed.

Apparently the impact of even the deficient monsoon this year has not been as severe as it was originally thought of and that is one of the reasons why some of the prices even vegetable prices have not been rising as fast as one had expected. Certainly there is no insurance against the rise in vegetable prices six months from now but my own feeling is given the fact that MSP is not being raised sharply, given the fact that more liberal attitude towards the release of food stocks is being contemplated, I would expect the food inflation to come down, stay at a much lower level.

Latha: Where do you see CPI to March 2015 and March 2016? I know it is a tough question that far off into the future.

Varma: I think first of all, the underlying trend in inflation based on the numbers we have got on September suggest that the underlying trend is already between 6 percent and 6.5 percent on CPI. So the starting point is important to note because 6 percent obviously is the intermediary target for January 2016, but we are already almost there in the end of 2014. We have been positively surprised by the momentum in disinflation in the last two-three months and I think a combination of lower rural wages and lower MSPs is contributing to this decline.

Fundamental factors such as continued low MSPs into next year output gap, which will close but will close at a slower pace, real interest rates are clearly turning positive, a more proactive government decision-making in this environment and of course lower global commodity prices. In this environment, fundamentally inflation should be under check while there can be volatility because of weather distortions, I think the trend should be one of low inflation, that is our fundamental view. In terms of exact numbers, March 2015 inflation is roughly tracking about 6.5 percent and probably slightly under 6 percent by early 2016. Of course these are the tracking estimates, which can change but like I said, we have been surprised positively by the pace of disinflation in the last two-three months.

Latha: What would your numbers be?

Chinoy: Very similar. We are still looking at a number of about 6.5 percent or so by next March and I take the Central Bank at face value, they will do whatever it takes to keep it to 6 percent the following year.

I will just make one quick point, we have spoken a lot about food inflation but the fall in core inflation has been as dramatic. It was 8 percent throughout last year. The year-on-year (Y-o-Y) number today is 5.8 percent. If you look at the quarterly annualized momentum, it is below 5 percent. That in part is because growth impulses have been quite weak. So next year it is not fair to look at today's core momentum and project in a linear fashion because to the extent that everyone is expecting some pick up in growth in 2015-2016, I think that will mean that there will be some pricing power back. So I think you should expect next year, even food inflation remains contained, core inflation could tick back up in the second half of next year not withstanding that, we are expecting 6.5 or thereabouts by March of 2015.

Q: Now for the more philosophical academic question. How should a central banker who gets 6.5 percent in March 2015 react if his goal is 6 percent in 2016 and maybe 4 percent in 2015. Should he actually relent and cut a little because overnight rates are at 8 percent. So should he relent by March or April or even February knowing fully well that at least we have come to 6.5, so some relief should be given. How should the central bank react?

Rangarajan: The overall environment as far as the price situation is concerned is moving towards a situation in which an easing of policy is possible. The question is the timing. I do believe that by March 2015 even retail inflation would be close to 6 percent, it could be even less by 6.5 percent. The factors that we need to take into account are the lower MSP, other world commodity prices, crude oil coming down. So all of this will have a favourable impact and therefore I do expect the prices to remain between 6.5 percent by 2015 yearly.

Therefore given that fact I would say that the easing of the policy can start once one more data point on inflation becomes available because we do know now retail inflation is coming down. Now we need one more data point to see yes, the tendency that we have noted in the last few months is confirmed. Once that really confirms the situation the prices are coming down the monetary authority can really think in terms of easing.

Q: In November we are even going to get a sub five number because of a very big base effect but the reserve bank's fan chart itself indicates that they expect it to jump back towards 7 percent by the time we come to January. Maybe with some special circumstances it won't go to 7, it may still go to 6.5. So, is one more data enough or should the governor have to wait even for the next season, next kharif before he cuts rates just in case what Sajjid was referring to that the age old 9 percent food inflation reasserts itself. Do you still say that he can cut by say, he gets a policy option in February and again in April?

Rangarajan: There is some reassurance that the food inflation is moving in the right direction. We have already discussed what are the favourable factors that are operating on it and the world commodity prices are coming down. Therefore when you look at the next data point we will look at it not simply in terms of the headline inflation behaviour but also in terms of the base effect and so on and if there is sufficient belief or if there is sufficient reason to think that the trend that we are noticing is really decisive then an action can be taken.

Q: So you are saying even December he can act or you would say that he can act in February which is the next policy?

Rangarajan: Definitely in February but December would be dicey but it all depends on the kind of data that we get regarding next month.

Q: The Reserve Bank's stated view is that it wants inflation at 6 percent by January 2016 and their ultimate comfort zone is to get it to 4 percent given that should he hurry with a rate cut as early as February and how much should he follow it up with. Should he remain very wary till he sees that 4 percent mark?

Rangarajan: Ultimately 4 percent is the ideal number. We spoke about it in the mid 1980s, the Chakravarty Committee of which I was a member suggested the 4 percent as the appropriate rate but the whole thing is that we have to track it in terms of the direction in which it is moving. Now if you are convinced that yes, there is enough ground to believe that the prices are moving in the right direction some easing can still be done. If one had to wait till it actually reaches 4 that will be too late. That means that one is really not giving any credence to the direction in which it is moving. Therefore one cannot do that or doing that doesn't require much forecasting powers or doesn't require much ability on the part of the central bank. The central bank should be in a position to anticipate and take action.

Q: What do you think the reserve bank should do, when should the first cut be and how many cuts, say, in the next one year or 18 months?

Chinoy: Purely it is a prescriptive comment. They should be very cautious. The point is that you want to not only bring inflation down to 6 percent but to keep it at 6 percent or below over the course of the entire business cycle and I am not sure we can. Undoubtedly there have been some structural changes in MSPs and releasing rice and wheat stocks but apart from those I am not sure we can with a degree of confidence say that disinflationary forces that have existed so far are going to sustain. When growth does pick up to 5.5 or 6 percent where will core inflation be. How confident can be that global oil prices are going to stay at these levels and not reaccelerate when US growth picks up next year.

Faced with those uncertainties when you are one year ahead of your target I would argue given the historical legacy there is enough uncertainty on inflation for the central bank to be very cautious. I will make two final points. We have done some econometric work to suggest that inflation expectations which are very sticky are adaptive in nature in India and not rational. They are backward looking, not forward looking. So in that environment if one of your goals is to bring inflation expectations down what you want is to push inflation down as much as possible. It is only when you have consistent positive surprises on inflation with households actually become to become believers.

So given that very sluggish response of expectations the central bank should be very cautious. We have also sort of estimated this is speculative in nature that if potential growth is about 6.5 percent where should neutral policy rate be and our sense is it is somewhere between 7.5 to 7.75 because if inflation settles down at 6 percent that gives you real policy rates of about 1.5 or 1.75 percent which we think is sort of neutral equilibrium rates. Remember in mid 2000s real policy rates were above 2.5 percent.

So given all of these factors my sense is I would prescribe no rate cut until the next monsoon is over and we have much more clarity on whether food inflation is gaping down structurally and we know what the growth cycle is and core inflation is and B, even when the rate cycle easing starts I don't see more than 25 or 50 basis points to ensure that real rates remain positive and healthy to get the financial re-intimidation of savings.

Q: When is your first cut expectation and how many in the next 18 months?

Varma: Our base case is actually for the RBI to stay on hold through 2015 and we are pencilling in a cut only in early 2016. Given the moderation in inflation there is some probability that we would assign two cuts in second half. But two things to keep in mind; one like you said the target is 4 not 6 and to keep it in the 4-6 band in an environment where output gap will be closing and second also we have to take into account the Fed rate hike cycle next year and what that is going to do the capital flows into emerging markets.

So, both the factors have to be taken into account. Surely the space for rate cuts is opening up but RBI is likely to be and actually should be cautious given we are coming from a period of very high inflation. We seem to be winning the battle but the last thing we would want is actually flip-flopping in policy making.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Jaitley vs Chidambaram debate: Who had the last laugh?

R Jagannathan

Firstpost.com

Last night (7 November) one waited eagerly for fireworks to erupt as Headlines Today lined up two finance ministers - one present and one past - to spar in what was billed as "The Clash of Titans". Organised in the context of a book on the 2014 Lok Sabha elections - a cracker of an election - by journalist Rajdeep Sardesai, the battle turned out to be a friendly sparring match between Arun Jaitley and his predecessor P Chidambaram.

Both were apparently a bit nervous, given that the journo anchoring the show was Karan Thapar, who is not known to beat around the bush or try and be too soft on anyone. While Jaitley sat through the debate with a near-perpetual frown on his face, Chidambaram appeared cool, but underneath the easy fa�ade he was often seen restlessly flapping his fingers.

Much was expected from the verbal bout, as both men are articulate and masters of the art of the debate. But the "Clash of the Titans" turned out to be a pillow-fight on a mattress between Tweedledum and Tweedledee. If Chidambaram had been the current finance minister and Jaitley that of the UPA, you wouldn't know the difference. Both of them tried hard to avoid punching the other anywhere it hurts, and the occasional mistimed jab was quickly deflected.

Jaitley set the tone for non-lethal sparring when he denied saying he had inherited an economy in "shambles". He refused to accept the word and said he meant he had inherited a "challenging" situation - which a happy Chidambaram was glad to concede, pointing out he too had inherited a challenging economy in 2004.

Even when the anchor repeated the word "shambles" to goad Jaitley into the ring, he jumped out of it into a non-combat zone. He weakly tried to counter Chidambaram by saying the Vajpayee government had left behind a fast-growing economy, but his opponent deflected this minor thrust by saying he inherited an economy that grew at an "average" of about 5-5.5 percent. By talking averages, Chidambaram also cleverly avoided having to acknowledge the reality of the legacy he himself left behind: an economy that was growing below 5 percent in the last two years of his stewardship of North Block. Chidambaram was too clever for Jaitley in this round.

Overall, Chidambaram won on points, and quite clearly his mastery of words and experience of running the finance ministry for nearly a decade (over three different periods) and by presenting nine budgets, showed through. Jaitley is nobody's fool, but his unwillingness to wound or confront his opponent showed him up as relatively less experienced novice.

If the economic debate was insipid, the political part of it elicited more than passing interest, and here Chidambaram offered views that made the headlines today (8 November). Manmohan Singh, he said, could have stopped A Raja from issuing the telecom licences (later cancelled by the Supreme Court), but Jaitley failed to point out Chidambaram's own role in the 2G spectrum controversy.

In a letter to the PMO in mid-January 2008, just days after Raja went ahead and issued the 2G licences, Chidambaram himself suggested that Raja's allotment of spectrum at 2001 prices should be treated as a "closed chapter ." Nor did Jaitley point out that the spectrum could have been cancelled even till end-February. In fact, a later note from Pranab Mukherjee's finance ministry said both Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram could have stopped Raja. Raman Kirpal wrote in Firstpost at that time : "Both Chidambaram and Manmohan Singh were in position to stop Raja from signing the deals as the latter had only issued 122 letters of intent (LOIs) on 10 January 2008. The licences were still to be given. But given the silence of the Prime Minister, Raja went on signing licence agreements on the basis of the 122 LOIs even a month after Chidambaram's note to the Prime Minister."

Jaitley also failed to point out that Chidambaram himself cleared the high-premium sale of shares by Swan Telecom and Unitech to foreign partners when their only asset was the cheap spectrum allotted by Raja. This clearly established the fact that spectrum was sold for a song – and thus the Raja decision prima facie mala fide.

Quite clearly, Jaitley was unwilling to take the fight to Chidambaram, and the latter won by default.

Even on the issue of retrospective taxation of Vodafone, another UPA legacy, Jaitley took a blow to the head and failed to give it back. When the anchor pointed out a claim in Sardesai's book that Pranab Mukherjee introduced the retrospective tax almost without consulting Manmohan Singh, Chidambaram got away by saying he was in the home ministry at that time, and made a general observation that the budget is usually decided between the PM and the FM, with the rest of the cabinet having almost no role to play in it.

Chidambaram even claimed the high ground by saying that if had had 282 seats in parliament, as the BJP did now, he would have repealed the retrospective law. Jaitley said little, embarrassed by this point, but he could have asked why Chidambaram didn't do so when he had the chance in 2013. It is not as if the UPA had a problem with passing any budget in any of its 10 years in power. Jaitley allowed him to get away with the claim that he could not change the law in the 2013 budget as he would have been accused of selling out to Vodafone. This is, of course, hogwash. Chidambaram planned to push key proposals through even in the 2014 interim budget. It wasn't as if he could not have modified the retrospective tax without a majority in parliament.

To make matters worse, Chidambaram even rubbed it in by congratulating Jaitley for asking the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) to stop making sensational statements, saying this advice to the CAG was good though it had come a bit late. By making this statement to a CAG conference, Jaitley effectively allowed the Congress party – which has always been anti-CAG for showing up its lapses in CWG, 2G and Coalgate – to claim victory.

What the debate proved was that there was very little to choose between Chidambaram's world view and Jaitley's, and that both are part of the Delhi insider consensus on economic policy and centrist politics. Neither wanted to show up the other, thus giving credence to the oft-repeated claim that the NDA was little more than UPA with "saffron lipstick" – the latter remark being made on Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar in the context of Jaitley's 2014-15 budget last July.

In many ways, Jaitley has been Narendra Modi's go-to man. He has been the most powerful minister in the cabinet (a position that could change with defence now set to go to Manohar Parrikar) both because he has been a strong defender of Modi in regard to 2002, and also because he is Modi's channel to Delhi's elite.

But this is a double-edged sword. Jaitley's acceptability in Delhi's power elite both helps and hinders Modi's agenda of bringing about a change in power structure. It helps by giving Modi an inside access to Jaitley's connections, but it probably hinders more by making the NDA seem like nothing more than UPA with more effective Prime Minister.

If the attractiveness of Modi to voters is that he is an outsider to Delhi and can thus be trusted to uproot the old cosy Delhi consensus and shake things up, Jaitley is his Achilles Heel. He is part of the old establishment in more ways than one.

Source:�firstbiz.firstpost.com

The writer is editor-in-chief, digital and publishing, Network18 Group

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Kolkata plays host to Investor Camp

As always we have three experts who have joined us in Kolkata to take us through this bull market. What a great run it has been and of course to field questions from our very long list of investors, this house is packed.

We are here in the beautiful city of Kolkata. As always we have three experts who have joined us in Kolkata to take us through this bull market. What a great run it has been and of course to field questions from our very long list of investors, this house is packed.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

iYogi: Online subscription-based technical support service

Founded in 2007, iYogi acts as your computer's online doctor and its team of 5,000 manages close to 2.2 million devices remotely from their headquarters in Gurgaon.

Founded in 2007, iYogi acts as your computer's online doctor and its team of 5,000 manages close to 2.2 million devices remotely from their headquarters in Gurgaon.

Watch video for more…

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Amit Harchekar positive on Zee Entertainment

Amit Harchekar, Chief Technical Strategist at A PLUS Analytics has a positive view on Zee Entertainment in the near term.

Amit Harchekar, Chief Technical Strategist at A PLUS Analytics told CNBC-TV18, "Trend seems to be on the upside as long  Zee Entertainment  continues to maintain the support zone of Rs 355, the target of Rs 385 plus remains quite intact. A lot of long build-up is already seen at higher levels which makes a good case for a good rally in the near term. So we remain quite positive on Zee in the near term."

At 14:15 hrs Zee Entertainment Enterprises was quoting at Rs 369.00, up Rs 14.30, or 4.03 percent. It has touched a 52-week high of Rs 371.25.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Accumulate PNB; target of Rs 1025: P Lilladher

Brokerage house Prabhudas Lilladher is bullish on Punjab National Bank (PNB) and has recommended 'Accumulate' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1025 in its research report dated October 22, 2014.

Prabhudas Lilladher's report on  Punjab National Bank (PNB)

"PNB's Q2FY15 performance disappointed on higher incremental slippages, subdued NII growth and higher provisions resulting in a PAT of Rs.5.7 bn, much lower than our as well as the consensus estimates. Asset quality issues have resurfaced on large slippages during the quarter. The restructuring portfolio remains the highest in the industry at 11% of loans where NPA fallouts have started to increase (35% of fresh slippages). We remain concerned as 35-40%of book will be moving out of moratorium in next 12-15months and non performance can put pressure on asset quality, but management assures of tight monitoring. Maintain Accumulate with PT of Rs 1025."

"PNB provided Rs6.8bn of additional provisions for specific loan a/c. Management has adopted policy to use write-back of investment depreciation and recovery from written off a/c for making provision specific loan a/c, which is prudent but is quite late in realising the need of prudent provisions. Despite prudent provisioning, PCR remains at 44% (calculated) and has not made material impact as stress remains high", says Prabhudas Lilladher research report.

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Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

To read the full report click here

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Short PNB, target Rs 885: Amit Harchekar

Amit Harchekar, Chief Technical Strategist at A PLUS Analytics recommends shorting Punjab National Bank with a target of Rs 885.

Amit Harchekar, Chief Technical Strategist at A PLUS Analytics told CNBC-TV18, "If you look into the derivatives position which is seen in entire banking space, the Bank Nifty has seen a major short build-up in the zone of 16950 to 17200. So we believe Bank Nifty is poised to test the levels of 16700-16800 in the near term."

" Punjab National Bank (PNB) since it turns out to be the weakest stock within the banking space, we expect it to go down and test levels of around Rs 880-890. On the short-term charts it has already formed a bearish triangle, so we don't expect the stock to again move beyond Rs 980. Keeping that as a stoploss we are recommending short positions with a target of Rs 885 in the near term," he said.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Centre keen on developing eastern India: Modi from Varanasi

Addressing weavers at Bada Lalpur where he inaugurated a powerloom service centre, Modi said that India could not develop as a nation if one concentrates only on the western region.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday emphasised on the need to develop eastern parts of the country during his visit to his Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi for the first time after assuming office.

Addressing weavers at Bada Lalpur where he inaugurated a powerloom service centre, Modi said that India could not develop as a nation if one concentrates only on the western region.

He also announced Rs 2,375 crore package to revive ailing banks in 16 districts of eastern Uttar Pradesh. The Prime Minister, whose Jan Dhan Yojana has registered over 6.02 crore account till October, also called for the revival of ailing banks in the eastern region of the country.

Lauding the expertise of textile weavers and acknowledging the employment the sector generates, Modi called for more people to join the profession specially the young generation. He added that the youngsters should take up the job out of pride and not compulsion.

He also reminded the people of Varanasi about the rich heritage of world-renowned Banarsi sarees. Modi said that a good market awaits it. "A big market is waiting for Banarsi sarees. You have the design, the work, the service. We have a great legacy here. It needs to be promoted as a better brand," Modi said as he addressed the weavers.

He also asked weavers to utilise the growing e-commerce market to reach out to global consumers.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Mitsubishi Pajero Sport automatic to be launched in India on November 14

Mitsubishi had announced that they will be launching the Pajero Sport automatic in India sometime in September. The launch date now has been pushed to November 14. The new Mitsubishi Pajero Sport automatic is expected to get exterior updates over the manual version. Changes to the interiors will include the additions Mitsubishi made to the limited... Read More

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

Cadila Healthcare Q2 net up 52% at Rs 278 crore

The company had posted a net profit after taxes, minority interest and share in profit/(loss) of associates at Rs 183.37 crore for the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, Cadila Healthcare said in a filing to the BSE.

Cadila Healthcare  today reported 51.65 per cent rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs
278.09 crore for the quarter ended September 30 on the back of robust sales.

The company had posted a net profit after taxes, minority interest and share in profit/(loss) of associates at Rs 183.37 crore for the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, Cadila Healthcare said in a filing to the BSE.

Consolidated total income of the company also rose to Rs 2,108 crore for the quarter under consideration as against Rs 1,746.79 crore for the same period a year-ago, it added. Cadila Healthcare, part of the Zydus group, provides healthcare solutions ranging from formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients and animal healthcare products to wellness products.

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

GlaxoSmithKline Pharma Q3 net up 27% at Rs 128.67 crore

Standalone total income from operations of GSK Pharma rose to Rs 746.76 crore for the quarter under consideration from Rs 626.65 crore for the same period year-ago

GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals  today reported 27.45 percent rise in its standalone net profit at Rs 128.67 crore for the third quarter ended September.

The company had posted a net profit of Rs 100.95 crore for the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals said in a filing to the BSE.

Standalone total income from operations also rose to Rs 746.76 crore for the quarter under consideration from Rs 626.65 crore for the same period year-ago, it added.

The company follows January-December financial year. Established in 1924 in India, GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals' product portfolio includes prescription medicines and vaccines. The company's prescription medicines range across therapeutic areas such as anti-infectives, dermatology, gynaecology, diabetes, oncology, cardiovascular disease and
respiratory diseases.

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

Godrej Properties Q2 profit up 36% to Rs 47 cr on lower tax

However, consolidated net sales declined 0.7 percent to Rs 285.4 crore in the quarter ended September 2014 compared to Rs 287.4 crore in same quarter last year.

Moneycontrol Bureau

Mumbai-based real estate developer Godrej Properties ' second quarter consolidated net profit jumped 35.9 percent year-on-year to Rs 46.6 crore led by lower tax rate and minority interest payment. Profit in the year-ago period was Rs 34.3 crore.

However, consolidated net sales declined 0.7 percent to Rs 285.4 crore in the quarter ended September 2014 compared to Rs 287.4 crore in same quarter last year.

Operating profit (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) dropped 29.6 percent year-on-year to Rs 57 crore and margin declined 710 basis points to 19.3 percent in the quarter gone by.

Tax expenses fell significantly to Rs 11.43 percent during the quarter compared to Rs 31.9 crore in corresponding quarter of last fiscal and minority interest dipped sharply to Rs 8.6 crore from Rs 26.3 crore during the same period.

Other expenses jumped 58 percent on yearly basis to Rs 14.85 crore and depreciation increased 62 percent to Rs 2.3 crore in July-September quarter.

During July-September quarter, Godrej Properties added one new project with 1.3 million square feet of saleable area in Q2 FY15 at Badlapur in Mumbai.

Godrej sold 1.5 lakh square feet of area in five separate cities (Mumbai, Gurgaon, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Kolkata) and crossed 1 million square feet in sales for the third consecutive quarter, said the company in its filing.

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

VHCL Industries: Outcome of board meeting

VHCL Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on November 01, 2014, have decided to issue and allot 2,57,50,000 Equity shares of Rs. 2/- (Rupees Two only) each fully paid up, in one or more tranches on preferential basis.

VHCL Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on November 01, 2014, have subject to the approval of Shareholders, stock exchanges where the shares of the Company are listed and other relevant authorities, decided to issue and allot 2,57,50,000 Equity shares of Rs. 2/- (Rupees Two only) each fully paid up, in one or more tranches on preferential basis, to the Investors who are Non Promoters, on conversion of outstanding Unsecured Loan into Equity Shares, at a price which shall not be lower than the price determined in accordance with the provisions of Chapter VII of the SEBI (ICDR) Regulations.The Board of Directors has also decided to hold an Extra Ordinary General Meeting on December 10, 2014 for approval of shareholders for issue of shares.Source : BSE

Read all announcements in VHCL Industries

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

Here are Rahul Mohindar's top trading ideas

Watch the interview of Rahul Mohindar, Technical Analyst, Viratechindia.Com with Sonia Shenoy & Reema Tendulkar on CNBC-TV18, in which he shared his reading and outlook on market and specific stocks.

Watch the interview of Rahul Mohindar, Technical Analyst, Viratechindia.Com with Sonia Shenoy & Reema Tendulkar on CNBC-TV18, in which he shared his reading and outlook on market and specific stocks.

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

Expect Indian Rupee to trade on mixed note: Angel

According to Angel Broking Indian Rupee to trade on a mixed note as a result of inflow of foreign funds in equities and debt markets will act as a positive factor.

Angel Broking's report on rupee

The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and appreciated marginally on Monday. The currency appreciated on the back of the inflow of foreign funds in equities and debt markets. Further, domestic equities reaching an all time high level and 10 year bond yield at the highest level in more than 14-months supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, optimistic manufacturing data from the country continued with upside movement in the Indian Rupee.

However, sharp upside in the currency was prevented due to weak economic data from Chinese economy in early trade. The currency touched an intra-day high of 61.315 and closed at 61.38 on Monday.

India's HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.6 points to 51.6-mark in October as against a rise of 51.0-level in September.

For the month of November 2014, FII inflows in equities totaled at Rs.1906.73 crores ($310.50 million) as on 3rd November 2014. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.84172.88 crores ($14001.02 million) as on 3rd November 2014.

Outlook

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a mixed note as a result of inflow of foreign funds in equities and debt markets will act as a positive factor. While on the other hand, dollar demand from importers, weak market sentiments along with strength in the DX will cap sharp gains or reversal in the Indian Rupee. Further, estimates of unfavorable services data from the country will exert downside pressure on the currency.

For all commodities report, click here

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

To read the full report click here

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

How to make 'Make in India' a reality

In May 2014, as the new stable government took oath in Delhi, there was a wave of optimism and excitement that pursed through Indian veins. Of the numerous announcements made by the new government the one that generated the most news, was in regards to the boost to the manufacturing sector. The current prime minister is very keen to turn India into a manufacturing hub and he even announced a grand initiative to that end titled 'Make in India'.

The Manufacturing promise

All the optimism notwithstanding, there are still some critical areas of concern that need to be resolved. For instance, the latest India Development Update of the World Bank shows how manufacturing in India, that accounts for around 16 per cent of GDP, has stayed fairly unchanged and is relatively lower in comparison to names like Brazil, China, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia. Though India's longer term growth potential seems high due to favorable demographics, relatively high savings, domestic market integration, improved growth prospects in the US as well as stronger remittance inflows and declining oil prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not only that, as China's lead in competitive quotient is facing question marks, India's name pops showing the usual advantages of costs, labour arbitrage, manufacturing efficiency as well as unusual factors like strong inventory base due to local manufacturing, component strengths and positive differences on shipping/freight factors.

In fact back in 2012, McKinsey analysis had hinted that rising demand in India, together with the multinationals' desire to diversify their production to include low-cost plants in countries other than China, could together help India's manufacturing sector to grow sixfold by 2025, to $1 trillion, and creating up to 90 million domestic jobs.

In spite of all the favorable factors, what has then stopped us from being the manufacturing hub of the world, say like our Mandarin neighbor?

The fact of the matter is that the world of manufacturing is not exactly a sibling of the outsourcing industry or agriculture sectors that we have mastered well so far. India seems to have missed one essential aspect even as it boasts of the rest like labour and cost arbitrage, which is technological and infrastructural resiliency.

Working on the nuts & bolts

India today exists in a world that is surrounded with new forces that shape its fate – globalization, lean manufacturing, real-time/follow-the-sun standards of collaboration and pre-emptive customer insight instead of post-launch market feedback for R&D and product lifecycles.

Hence, that brick-and-mortar shopfloor has been accosted with new imperatives suddenly. It is not enough for engineers to just design, but they have to think ahead of customers and guess with unrelenting accuracy as to what works with them or what does not. It would not suffice for assembly lines to ship a certain delivery in time unless it rigorously hugs some very exacting standards of quality and UI along the way. Resources will have to ensure productivity but they would be expected to cross new levels of competitiveness and diversity-tapping. For factories to stay relevant, they would have to be in sync with their suppliers, their ecosystem partners, their customers, the chain-influencers, the regulators, the procurement points, and even some indirect stakeholders.

Tech as the differentiator

All these levels of depth and breadth can be facilitated tremendously with answers like Cloud and new-age collaboration. With Cloud you need not invest disproportionately into more bricks or metal just to stay shoulder to shoulder with other biggies. Cloud offers the elasticity and the scalability that a player from India or any segment can leverage to its advantage. It helps traverse global boundaries as well as fringes of maturity so that one can leapfrog to new levels despite one's current geographical co-ordinates or stage of manufacturing strength.

World's top-notch brands from smart phones to fast cars are already tapping into the advantages of smart sourcing and hence very soon the product in your hand could very well read 'made-in-cloud' instead of 'made-in-Taiwan' or 'made-in-Germany'. The winner of this race would, hands-down, be the one who can add some native, quintessential magic over that label.

India, with its epic wealth of diversity, inveterate resilience and amazing lineage of overcoming struggles, can very well add that extra stripe on every barcode. But to be able to do that, it would need to have common denominators like technology, firmly under its belt.

'Make In India' is not a fantasy, it is not something that will happen in the next few years, it's happening right now, right around, as we read these lines.

Let us allow the power of technology to act as a super-catalyst in this almost super-natural journey of the world's next superpower. India is arriving.

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

Tata Crucible: Raipur Finals of Corporate Quiz 2014

Six teams battle for the top place at the Tata Crucible Business Quiz 2014 Raipur finals.

Six teams battle for the top place at the Tata Crucible Business Quiz 2014 Raipur finals.

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

SHRM Conference 2014 discusses role of HR in changing times

To discuss and understand the role of HR in changing times, Society for Human Resource Management India organised its third annual conference, a platform that empowers and enables HR personnel across industry verticals to stay in line with the continuously evolving HR industry.

It is imperative for businesses to build practises that help manage processes efficiently to encourage employee contribution and commitment. To further discuss and understand the role of HR in changing times, Society for Human Resource Management India organised its third annual conference, a platform that empowers and enables HR personnel across industry verticals to stay in line with the continuously evolving HR industry.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Investor Camp: Diwali cheer and the road ahead

Watch Investor Camp at Jaipur with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Sonia Shenoy where they discuss the cheer in the market this Diwali and the road ahead.

Watch Investor Camp at Jaipur with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Sonia Shenoy where they discuss the cheer in the market this Diwali and the road ahead.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

How insurance can help your finances grow

Rituraj Bhattacharjee
Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance

With the rise in the cost and standard of living these days, what is also essential is the provision of finances to support these needs. The concept of providing for these needs through credit cards has become increasingly common in such cases. While this credit system may work in case of material goods and consumer durables, your life stage goals or needs on the other hand, requires a better plan. This is why, merely planning for the immediate future is not enough. There is a need to plan ahead and make sufficient financial provision for the distant future too.

Some of the most common forms of investments through which you can provision for your future are mutual funds, stock market, fixed deposits, property, and even the purchase of gold. However, insurance too can be used as a unique option of protection and life stage planning.  A life insurance plan carefully selected as per your need not only works as a steady means of investment, but also provides the much needed protection till you attend that financial goal of yours.

The advantage with using insurance as a means of facilitating financial planning is that it is a beneficial tool which enables immense diversification. Insurance plans make available different options such as traditional plans, ULIPs, etc., which act as a solution for almost every requirement like education, retirement etc.

Adopt insurance to help your money grow
Trying to build a strong financial backing for oneself can be taken forward by ensuring that the money is invested where one gets the benefit of growth, but at the same time protects the savings/corpus. Here is how insurance can help you achieve each of these objectives.
Make saving a priority: When planning your finances, an important thing to keep in mind is that the earlier you start, the more you will save. The one major benefit of starting early with an insurance plan is that you will get a larger life insurance cover at a lower premium. Some of the best options to turn to when you are looking to save are endowment plans and money back plans, especially in your start up years as they can help you build your habit of saving. These plans usually come with a secured returns and a reasonable life cover.

Invest your money where it grows: When looking at options that can help your money to grow, turning to ULIPs is one of the best to consider. The advantage with ULIPs is that it is a flexible investment option. This gives the customer the opportunity to choose the type of fund that he/she would like to invest in, as per their risk appetite. ULIPs also enable you to navigate your investment against market volatility through options such as premium apportionment and fund switch option.

The benefit here is that the customer gets unlimited fund switch options, allowing him/her to alter the proportion of debt and equity funds, thus balancing out the portfolio. The most beneficial feature, however, of ULIPs is that this type of plan comes with the twin benefits of life protection as well as a market-linked growth for the investment.

Protect your finances: Insurance can provide you with various options that allow you to protect your money for your family's future, upon your death or in case you are incapacitated due to some accident. Some of the most prominent options that make this possible are term plans, and riders like Waiver of Premium or Accelerated Critical Illness (ACI).

While terms plans offer your family with the complete sum assured upon your death, riders such as waiver of premium protect your family's finances. This option helps since the nominee would still get the complete sum assured, without the obligation of having to pay a premium for the remaining policy term. The elimination of premium may come into effect in case of death or accidental total permanent disability. Additionally, a rider such as Accelerated Critical Illness can provide relief even in a situation such as occurrence of a critical illness. Accelerated Critical Illness can help by advancing your life cover so that money is available to you when you need it the most. The benefit of riders is that they provide additional features that can be taken along with your base plan, at a nominal additional cost.

Besides riders, term plans too can help protect your finances through the various options that it provides. These options could range from providing security for future situations such as change in responsibilities depending on your life stage, inflation, etc., to taking care of loan liabilities by your family, in case of the unfortunate demise of the bread earner.

Life Insurance- A multi pronged financial tool
Life insurance these days serve several purposes in addition to simply providing your family with basic monetary relief once you are gone. It is, therefore, a good idea to think about insurance the next time you want to invest your money wisely.

The author is a Head - Market Management at Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

A. G. Giridharan ceases to be manager of Harita Seating

Harita Seating Systems Ltd has informed BSE that Mr. A. G. Giridharan, president, who was appointed as Manager, has been re-designated as President and CEO and consequently ceases to be a manager for the purpose of Act 2013 effective November 03, 2014.

Harita Seating Systems Ltd has informed BSE that Mr. A. G. Giridharan, president, who was appointed as Manager, has been re-designated as President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO), a whole-time key managerial personnel, in terms of the applicable provisions of the Companies Act 2013 (the Act 2013) and consequently ceases to be a manager for the purpose of Act 2013 effective November 03, 2014.Source : BSE

Read all announcements in Harita Seating

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

Sensex, Nifty flat; Sesa up 2%, Ashok Leyland hits new high

14:28

Moneycontrol Bureau The market remained flat with a negative bias as the Sensex and Nifty consolidated their gains after hitting record highs last week. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices continued to outperform benchmarks, up 1 percent each.

The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 47.59 points to 27818.24 and the 50-share NSE Nifty declined 13.25 points to 8308.95. About 1679 shares have advanced, 1145 shares declined, and 117 shares are unchanged.
 
Andrew Holland of Ambit Capital said he expects the Nifty to hit 9000 before the Budget and will not be surprised to see a 50 basis points rate cut in the first quarter of calendar year 2015.

Sesa Sterlite topped the buying list in the Sensex, up 2 percent followed by Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI and Reliance Industries with 0.6-1.5 percent while Gail India tanked 5.58 percent as CLSA downgraded the stock to sell from outperform. Mahindra and Mahindra, Coal India, Maruti Suzuki and NTPC lost 1.5-3 percent.

In macro data, the auto industry is in reverse gear as sales for the month of October missed expectations. The festive season failed to cheer, most auto makers like Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors and Hero Motocorp reported a drop in sales.

Ashok Leyland surged 2.5 percent to touch a record high of Rs 47.50 after reporting a 23 percent rise in total sales at 8,375 units in October year-on-year.

The currency was trading weak at 61.41 to the dollar on account of dollar buying from importers and gains in the dollar overnight. Gold, in the meantime, struggled near a four-year low, trading at sub USD 1170 an ounce.

Globally, equity markets were a mixed bag. Asian markets like Korea and Hong Kong were lower by 0.5 percent while China was higher after Chinese PMI data rose to 3-month high of 50.4. European markets, in the meanwhile, were trading flat today ahead of euro zone PMI data later today.

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

Buy SBI 2750 Call: Rahul Shah

Rahul Shah of Motilal Oswal recommends buying State Bank of India 2750 Call at current levels.

Rahul Shah of Motilal Oswal told CNBC-TV18, "Overall public sectors undertaking (PSU) banks have seen the sizeable longs getting created in selectively good banks. So in largecap space, I like State Bank of India  (SBI). I would recommend buying SBI 2750 Call at current levels with a target of Rs 85 and stoploss of Rs 70."

At 13:49 hrs State Bank of India was quoting at Rs 2,727.90, up Rs 26.25, or 0.97 percent. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 2,743.00 and an intraday low of Rs 2,695.

Disclosure: Analyst does not have any positions in the stock.

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

Buy Bharti Airtel, advises Rahul Shah

Rahul Shah of Motilal Oswal recommends buying Bharti Airtel for a target of Rs 430.

Rahul Shah of Motilal Oswal told CNBC-TV18, " Bharti Airtel has been an underperformer post results also. You might see some kind of short getting squeezed in this counter. So I would recommend buying Bharti at current levels with a stoploss of Rs 390 for a target of Rs 430."

At 14:04 hrs Bharti Airtel was quoting at Rs 396.25, down Rs 2.05, or 0.51 percent. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 403.60 and an intraday low of Rs 394.10.

Disclosure: Analyst does not have any positions in the stock.

16.03 | 0 komentar | Read More

Tata Bolt: Checkout the finer details

Overdrive chat with Girish Wagh, Tata Motors' Vice President and Head of Small Car Project, to know more about the soon to be launched Tata Bolt.

Overdrive chat with Girish Wagh, Tata Motors ' Vice President and Head of Small Car Project, to know more about the soon to be launched Tata Bolt.

For entire chat watch accompanying video

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Checkout: What it's like to drive new Alto K10

Overdrive's Rohit Paradkar gets behind the wheel of the all new Alto K10 to find out what it's like to drive.

Overdrive's Rohit Paradkar gets behind the wheel of the all new Alto K10 to find out what it's like to drive.

For more watch accompanying video

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Sena advises new BJP govt to not take people for granted

It is true that there is no magic wand to fulfil promises made (during polls) but people of Maharashtra are looking at the new Government, the first led by BJP, with a lot of hope, the publication said.

Shiv Sena today cautioned new Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis against taking the people for granted and asked him to fulfil the expectations of the common man.

"The new Government is like a newly-wed woman who initially pleases her mother-in-law. In this case the mother- in-law is the people of Maharashtra. You cannot take people for granted. They have the power to pull your ears when you err," an editorial in Sena mouthpiece `Saamana' said.

This is the first lesson the new Government will have to learn, the Sena said amid signs of a rapprochement between the saffron parties, who parted ways on September 25, just weeks before the Assembly polls, which saw BJP emerging as the single largest party in the State.

It is true that there is no magic wand to fulfil promises made (during polls) but people of Maharashtra are looking at the new Government, the first led by BJP, with a lot of hope, the publication said.

"Mantralaya (the State Secretariat) was gutted during the Congress-NCP rule but the aspirations of people had turned into ashes much before that. The new Chief Minister should ensure that his work is like the proverbial Phoenix which rose from the ashes," the Sena organ maintained.

Describing yesterday's swearing in ceremony of the Fadnavis-led Ministry as grand (it was also attended by corporate bigwigs), the Sena said the poor, and not the rich or money bags, should get the attention of the administration as was the case during Shivaji's era.

"Fadnavis has said he will emulate Shivaji Maharaj's example while ruling the state. He should remember that the real strength of Shivaji's Hindavi swarajya was not the seth and sahukars but the common poor folk."

Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray attended the inauguration ceremony at Wankhede Stadium after a call from BJP President Amit Shah and other leaders. The party had earlier announced it would keep off the mega event, attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, citing "constant humiliation" by BJP ahead of Government formation.

Sena MP Vinayak Raut yesterday said Shah has assured Uddhav of a positive decision on participation of his party in the BJP Government.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Why lobbying Smriti Irani may not be the way to go for RSS

R Jagannathan
Firstpost.com

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been pressuring the Union HRD Minister, Smriti Irani, to make some changes in historytext-books. At a meeting yesterday (30 October), representatives from various RSS front organisations told her that she must "correct" school history textbooks so that children were taught "true" history and learn about "real Indian heroes."

While the RSS' regular meetings with Irani have been criticised for turning into an NDA version of� Sonia Gandhi 's National Advisory Council – an extra-constitutional influence on government policy – the purpose of this article is not to dwell on that aspect, but to dispel notions about what history really is, and what school curricula should or should not be about.

In calling for the writing of "correct" history, the RSS is falling into the same trap that the earlier Nehruvian consensus on history-writing led us into. If there is any incorrect thing that needs debunking in history, it is this: there is no such thing as "correct" history. All histories are versions of the truth. The more the kinds of histories we write, the closer we will get to the truth.

Let me illustrate this point with recent history. If there is one correct version of recent history, which we have all seen on TV screens or read about in newspapers or have witnessed personally, there should be only one narrative emerging from it. For example: did� Narendra Modi �win the 2014 election or did UPA lose it? Or is a third factor responsible for the results we got. There are enough reasons to believe that both points have some relevance. If Modi partisans were to write history, they would call it the triumph of one man's vision on development, or some such thing. If his detractors were to write it, they would say communal scare-mongering was a key factor in his victory. A third version may say it wasn't about Modi or Manmohan, changing demographics had everything to do with it.

If we cannot agree on recent history which we have all had direct access to, how can we ever expect to agree on what is our "true" ancient history, as deduced from broken pottery or shards of glass or defaced coins or religious literature? If there can be 300 Ramayanas, surely there can be 300 versions of history?

So, to repeat, there is no such thing as "correct" history. What there can be are many versions of history, and here the RSS is surely right to think its version should also have its day in the sun. Thus, there need not be only a Marxist-Left-Secular version of history, but a Hindu version of history, just as there can be histories told from the gender, underclass, regional or tribal perspectives.

What the RSS should not do is try and pretend that only its version is correct. It can't be.

The second issue one needs to address is this: should the party in power seek to use its control of government resources to write (or rewrite) history? I don't believe so.

If Nerhuvian-Marxist scholars like Romila Thapar and Bipan Chandra could shove their version of history down our throats, and we felt suffocated by this insistence that theirs was the only right version, it hardly makes sense for the RSS to impose the same tyranny on us. I believe that all attempts at writing history with different perspectives should be left to private think-tanks and scholars. The HRD ministry or the central government should not be involved in the process.

What does this imply? The RSS should fund independent historical research that empathises with its world view and then let these versions compete for attention and dominance with the public. If it is based on evidence, logic and research, it will hold its own against the Romila Thapar version. Writing history top-down from a position of governmental strength will never have validity – just as the Thapar version did not have authenticity with many sections of the country.

This leaves us with the question of school text-books: if what we now have is only one version of Nehru-Marxist-influenced history, why should it be retained? If it is not right to thrust a saffron version of history down our children's throats, how is the Thapar version more palatable?

Clearly, our history text-books need to be re-written – but not by replacing one bias with another.

Any rewriting should attempt to present history as a version, with references to other versions too being made at various points where there are sharp differences. Our children need to be taught that history is about looking at all versions of the truth and then making up one's mind. History is not god's truth.

If the RSS is interested in a better version of history, it should build the credibility of its approach by putting its money where its mouth is. It should invest in scholarship and research. Lobbying Smriti Irani for it is not the way to go.

The writer is editor-in-chief, digital and publishing, Network18 Group

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

China's October official PMI edges down to 50.8

The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 50.8 in October from September's 51.1, but above the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.

China's factory sector grew in October but at a pace that was slightly slower than expected, underlining the challenges facing the sector as manufacturers fight rising costs and softening demand in a cooling economy.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 50.8 in October from September's 51.1, but above the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 51.2.

The data followed warnings by China's industrial ministry on Friday that factories were under pressure from high borrowing costs, which were further exacerbating the sector's slowdown.

Also read:  In war on smog, hostile China steel mills adapt to survive

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

Current bull mkt still young; like LT, pvt banks: Experts

The momentum of the rally seen in the last few days has been much sharper than expected, and so there are chances of it consolidating going forward, feels market expert Sandeep Shah of  Motilal Oswal . According to him the current bull market is still young.

The sudden rally in market could be because of all around positive newsflow, positive global economic data, good last week quarterly earnings, and a stronger political mandate for Narendra Modi, feels Shah.

According to Jai Bala of cashthechaos.com market volatility could continue into the first half of November and could taper-off from the fresh highs but could be better of in second half of November and then December. Although the market would convincingly exceed 8355 levels, it may also revisit levels of 7724 which could pose as good opportunity to go long, he added.

Stock specific, Jai Bala feels most stocks having the name Bharat would perform well. The house has no screaming buys from the frontliners, however thinks  Tata Steel and  Infosys could lead the market going forward.

Amongst other stocks Jai Bala likes UltraTech Cement , BEML ,  BHEL and Larsen and Toubro .

Shah says the current investment approach would remain focused on growth and quality, and from that angle some private banks and NBFCs, IT stocks look attractive. However,  IT stocks may not dramatically outperform the benchmark like bank, he addd.

IndusInd Bank ,  HDFC Bank from the private banks, and Dewan Housing Finance Corporation as an NBFC looks good, says Shah but even  Yes Bank and  Kotak Mahindra Bank could see credit growth coming back. From the IT pack, he is upbeat on Tech Mahindra .

With regards to capital goods and power sector, there is still need more action at the ground level believes Shah, and so sticking with quality and growth the house would prefer to stay invested in Larsen and Toubro than the risky BHEL.

From the infrastructure pack, Jai Bala is positive on  Reliance Industrial Infrastructure and Ramky Infrastructure .

On the rupee dollar front, Bala feels rupee would be under pressure and dollar index would be around 92-94.

From the commodity point of view, he is bearish on gold for the medium to long-term and sees USD 1155 per ounce as a significant support for the metal in the short-term.

Below is the transcript of Jai Bala and Sandeep Shah's interview with Sonia Shenoy & Anuj Singhal on CNBC-TV18.

Sonia: Great week for traders, great series as well although the initial part was a bit choppy but what is the sense you are getting about how the November series will shape up?

Bala: I have been working on the thesis that this market is going to face some resistance in the range of 8,286 and 8,355. The market has got into that range and has closed into that range. So Monday is going to be crucial day for me – it's that thesis I am working with. So the volatility that we experienced in October is going to continue into first half of November, so we could see the market taper off from these highs and continue the volatility that we saw in October in the first half and then we are going to probably see a much better second half of November and December –that's the thesis I am working at this point in time.

Anuj: In that case at what point would you initiate a fresh long position on the Nifty and what would be your December-end target for the Nifty?

Bala: Market is the ultimate boss and there is no argument with that because market will exceed convincingly above 8,355. I will have to revisit this thesis and I will look at the market hitting 8,600 without any significant correction. You might have one or two blips around couple of sessions but the thesis that I am working with is that the market is going to revisit the 7,724 levels that we saw in October and that will be an interesting opportunity for us to get longs.

However, even then there is going to be stock specific action in the market and whatever be the direction of the market in the short-term, the stocks that have name 'Bharat' are going to do well whether or not it's Swachh Bharat – the theme is going to be 'Switch to Bharat' stocks.

Sonia: Big heavyweights like Larsen and Toubro (L&T), State Bank of India (SBI), HDFC and all gained last week. What would your top picks be now?

Bala: In the frontline stocks I do not have any specific screaming buy at this point in time although I like UltraTech Cement at this point in time. I am expecting UltraTech to scale new 52 week high. As I spoke about the Bharat stocks; in the Bharat stocks I think Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) at this point in time. It is set to clock fresh highs about Rs 290 and L&T although is also likely to scale Rs 1,850-1,900 in the short-term. So, I like these three stocks from the frontline names.

Among other stocks which are not in the frontline stocks, I think BEML has fantastic potential from current levels. I think BEML set to scale Rs 900 in the short to medium-term. So these are the stocks I am looking at now.

Anuj: I am giving you four or five names and if you could tell me what would be the market leader or if it would be something else. You had  Reliance Industries which participated in the last couple of days, Infosys and  Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) started to participate last week, you spoke about L&T and Tata Steel also showed signs of move up. From the index stocks what pocket do you expect would take leadership?

Bala: Reliance has been a bit of a disappointment. I had expected the stock to stay stronger than what it has actually done in terms of price action. So, I would say it's a bit of a disappointment and I don't  think it is going to lead the market at this point in time but Tata Steel seems to be putting in some sort of a pace and it could very well go back to the 52 week highs around Rs 530 odd level that it saw few months ago, so that could be leading the market.

Infosys being market leader in the month of August, it was staying at about Rs 3,600-3,700 and we saw Rs 3,900 coming through in the month of August. I think Infosys still has got some steam left although I would say this is not a point where one should create fresh longs but I am a bit reluctant to talk about TCS. The structure for the stock isn't that encouraging but Infosys and Tata Steel would be the leader from the frontline stocks.

Sonia: In the last week we also saw a lot of the infrastructure highly leveraged names gained quite a bit like  NCC was up 30 percent,  GVK Power ,  IVRCL were up 20 percent. Any picks in that lot that you would want to trade just for next week?

Bala: I have couple of picks in the infrastructure names; of course Reliance Industrial Infrastructure seems to be coming up with a very interesting setup in the short to medium-term. The stock is set to scale about Rs 700 in the short to medium-term. We saw one of the smallcap infrastructure stocks Ramky Infrastructure breakout on October 30 – that has got terrific structural, it is set to scale about Rs 80 to Rs 85 from current levels. So interestingly I have two picks in the infrastructure space.

Anuj: You track global assets also closely, so (1) your call on dollar and (2) your call on commodities.

Bala: The dollar index is going to be much-much stronger than what people are anticipating. We have spoken about the dollar index in 2010 where I had mentioned that dollar index is set to scale 98 in the very long-term. We look at it from one year to one-and-a-half year timeframe. We are seeing at least 92-94 for the dollar index. So that is going to put a lot of pressure on the Indian rupee too.

Coming to commodities, gold is very important asset at this point in time. It is set to clock a short-term low at this point in time. I think USD 1,155 per oz will be a short-term important significant support for gold and from thereon we are going to see a short-term rally although I am bearish on gold for the medium to long-term.

It is going to go down to three digits in something like six to one year down the line. I am talking about dollar denominated gold and not the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) gold.

Anuj: Did you expect the market to reclaim the highs after the kind of 5 percent correction we had in a matter of what 10 or 11 trading sessions?

Shah: I had a target of about 7,600-7,800 and interestingly the market rebounded from 7,720 on Friday and immediately after that the newsflow every where all around that seems to have turned positive we got news of the stronger political mandate for Narendra Modi.

Also we have started seeing a bits and piece of reforms coming in. We have had good quarterly numbers this week compared to the previous week where we had more disappointments and globally also the economic data has suddenly turned positive. A rally was expected, but the momentum of this rally has certainly been sharp over the last few days so to that extent yes the momentum has been a swift and sharp and chance are that it is still a relatively young bull market but given that the market has gone up for about eight-nine days on a trot some call for consolidation is possible going forward from here.

Sonia: What are your top stocks calls now post earnings season? What have you liked this time around?

Shah: We still have some time before close of earning season but yes there has been a fair amount of companies which have done well including private banks, non-bank financial companies (NBFCs), so if you were to look for top picks clearly the private banks, Indusind and HDFC bank continue to do exceptionally well. Yes Bank has pulled in now. A lot banks like Yes Bank and perhaps Kotak Mahindra could also fit in to that category had actually deliberately slowed down on credit growth because of the economic environment. However, as hopes build up of an economic recovery you would see credit growth also coming back there.

Besides that there has been host of other companies as well. The NBFCs have reported good numbers. A smaller company there a Dewan Housing Finance Corporation has also done pretty well that's again a company which has got incredibly lower non-performing assets (NPAs) and is trading at less than book next year and has return on equity (ROE) of more than 18 percent. Builds a lot of other ideas as well across sectors but the theme for the market broadly remain focused on growth it remains focused on quality and there is little incentive to change that investment approach.

Anuj: In terms of the two large sectors this month was all about the banks. You had the Bank Nifty out performing 10.50 percent but from the bottom IT also made a very strong come back at one point IT index was down six percent but it ended flat for the month. Going forward what would be a better pick frontline IT or frontline bank?

Shah: Absolutely frontline banks no question about that. This is not say that I don't like IT. However in spite of the fact that private sector banks especially the larger ones have done well. They have done well in an economic environment which has not been good and a better economic environment can add that much more to the growth. Even if we see some of the good banks reporting numbers we have seen some sequential increase in gross NPAs. In some cases in absolute terms, in some case in percentage terms the increase hasn't been dramatic but at the same point of time we are still seeing that. There is a lot of that which could reverse and you could actually also see gains as you find that not just the rate of addition to gross NPAs actually comes off and starts falling but you actually start seeing recoveries as well.

IT companies will also do well. Valuations first among them are quite reasonable. Some of them like Tech Mahindra continue to do exceptionally well and continue to be some the stocks we like. One of the reasons why Tech stocks corrected was because the market was disappointed by Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) numbers but then its partly because expectations has also run-up significantly. So IT stocks will do well but I don't expect them to dramatically outperform the benchmark, unlike the banks which could significantly outperform from here as well.

Sonia: The stock that has been the biggest gainer in the month of October was interestingly Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) with almost 30 percent gain and that's peculiar because it was not corroborated by either good earnings or any fundamentally positive news. Would you buy BHEL now?

Shah: The first thing is that where you find stocks which have corrected 80-90 percent from the peak you will continuously see rallies of 30-50 percent because that will only retrace a very small portion of the fall because the 30 percent is on a base which is 50 or 80 percent lower. So that is one part of the story.

Secondly, BHEL did win a few orders and that gave some sort of confidence to the market. Having said that Capital goods and power as a sector is something that still needs more action at the ground level the government is doing their bit and will continue to do so.

Obviously it is a sector where it takes time takes 9-12 months before the efforts to actually speedup projects, clearances etc starts reflecting in to financial closure, start reflecting in to order flows, start reflecting in terms of actual delivery and sales and profit numbers so there is a huge cycle up there.

Having said that I would prefer to stay invested with the proven quality names, not that BHEL is not good quality but in terms of growth there are still a fair amount of questions. I would rather happily stay invested in Larsen & Toubro (L&T) which has also corrected and where also numbers haven't been as per market expectations. In a relative sense this is probably more of opportunity in L&T whereas the risk is probably still higher in BHEL.

Anuj: The last half of September and first half of October saw a quite a bit of under performance from high beta but now with the market back to all-time highs and easy liquidity again back in the system would you be tempted to bring some beta into portfolio, some slightly lower quality stocks which could be high risk high return bets. Would there be temptation to include some of these stocks in portfolios the likes of NCC Infrastructure, GVK, Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) which had good run on Friday as well would you consider looking at them?

Shah: Buying stocks like GVK, G M R Infrastructure and I mean no offence to the promoters and am actually referring to the space in which they operate and the leverage that they have on their balance sheet as well as the environment in which they are currently operating can at best be looked as an option value. That's the best way that you can look at it and I am not recommending it I am simply saying that if somebody who would like to invest in those companies and that's not a recommendation from me.

The only way that you can look at investment in highly leveraged companies, in sectors which are still in the doldrums is to actually buy them as an option value and to say that this is the percentage of my capital that I am willing to write-off and therefore that's the kind of position that I can take.

As far as I am personally concerned I would actually prefer to stay in quality. If I have to look at beaten down sectors I would look to buy quality within those beaten down sectors as opposed to buying companies with high financial leverage in those sectors. I would stick to proven leaders because when you are buying a beaten down sector you are obviously taking high risk so how do you offset or mitigate that risk. How do you ensure that even if things don't workout your capital is still preserved and you still get some returns you do that by buying best companies in this space.

You do that by buying companies which have got low leverage on their balance sheets, which have got good quality management and leadership in their respective sectors that's the really that to my mind would be the smarter way to play it rather than take whole a lot of risk at this stage.

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Storyboard: Mindshare's Big Data to improve targeting

Storyboard editor Anant Rangaswami caught up with Mindshare's APAC COO, R Gowthaman to understand the implications of Big Data and how brands will profit from it.

Age, Gender and Income, use of such demographics to target consumers may soon be a thing of the past. Welcome Big Data which can help map consumer preferences or taste graph which Group M's Mindshare believes will improve targeting and deliver better results for brands.

Storyboard editor Anant Rangaswami caught up with Mindshare's APAC COO, R Gowthaman to understand the implications of this change and how brands will profit from it.

For full show watch video.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More

TiE The Knot: A platform for early stage entrepreneurs

Catch the second edition of TiE The Knot in partnership with TiE Delhi-NCR. TiE The Knot is a platform where early stage entrepreneurs are battling it out to raise funds from some of India's top venture capitals and angels. Watch how four start-ups strike a deal and will walk away with over Rs 6.5 crore in funding.

Catch the second edition of TiE The Knot in partnership with TiE Delhi-NCR. TiE The Knot is a platform where early stage entrepreneurs are battling it out to raise funds from some of India's top venture capitals and angels. Watch how four start-ups strike a deal and will walk away with over Rs 6.5 crore in funding.

16.02 | 0 komentar | Read More